Last time we talked about what a complex game live poker
is and how nobody plays error-free poker. Everybody sometimes misreads
what they think their opponent has, everybody sometimes calls when they
should fold, and everybody sometimes checks when they should bet. Still
and all, you'll be okay if you just make fewer mistakes than your opponents.
In blackjack, however, your opponent is the house, and
you've got the built-in disadvantage of having to play your hand first.
The good news is, you can make that up with expert play – just
barely. But the odds of the game are so close that even if you do play
like an expert, there's practically no room at all for mistakes. You
have to know every correct play like the palm of your hand just to keep
things almost 50-50. And if you want to actually gain the upper hand
over the dealer, then you've got to keep some kind of reliable track
of the cards.
Let me give you an example of how playing errors in
blackjack will shoot you down. There's a right and a wrong way to play
every hand and if you never make a mistake, odds are the dealer will
still pull four bets ahead of you for every 10 hours of play.
Of course, that would be in a perfect world. But in
the green felt jungle you're subject to the moody swings of Lady Luck.
In fact, 45% of the time, you'll actually win enough extra lucky hands
to end up a winner for that 10 hour period.
Now instead, what about the average Joe Blackjack who
plays about 1 out of every 10 hands wrong? What are his odds? Because
of the way Joe plays, he should fall 12 bets behind every 10 hours.
Lady Luck will help him out enough to make up those 12 bets only 33%
of the time! And the more mistakes Joe makes, the luckier he has to
get to come out ahead.
Now, suppose you play all your hands perfectly, but
still don't like the odds of probably falling four bets further behind
every 10 hours. Suppose you want to have the odds in your favor at blackjack.
Fortunately, gaining the upper hand in the game is possible. Unfortunately,
it requires keeping track of key cards that have been dealt.
When most blackjack players hear that last statement,
they back away, feeling it's too much work. But what pinochle player
worth his salt would play pinochle and not keep track of trump cards?
In stud poker, if you were drawing to a diamond flush, wouldn't you
count the diamonds on board? Why should it take any less effort to win
at blackjack? Do you think the casino's going to give their money to
you just because you memorized a basic strategy "win card"
from their gift shop?
Oh no! To gain the upper hand over the house, you'll
have to play more perfectly than just perfect basic strategy. You'll
have to know when the right cards are left in the shoe. Then you'll
be in the position of probably pulling two to six bets ahead every 10
hours. Your actual chances of coming out ahead over any 10-hour stretch
wouldn't be 45% or 33% anymore -- but 53% to 57%.
Many methods have been devised for tracking the cards
in blackjack. The strongest ones require the dedication of a fanatic,
and the weakest can be mastered by most average players in a few hours.
The simplest (and weakest) card tracking method around
is the "Ace/10 Front Count", detailed in my book, Blackjack
Bluebook II.
The next simplest (and moderately stronger) method is
the "Speed Count" in Frank Scoblete's book, Golden Touch Blackjack
Revolution.
A modest step up from that is the "KISS Count"
in my book, Blackjack Bluebook II.
If you want to go all the way with the most efficient
counting system on the open market today (and the most difficult), learn
the "Halves Count" in Stanford Wong's book, Professional Blackjack.