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Everybody occasionally
runs into something that seems too good to be true. Strange how
often it's at 99-cent or dollar stores, used car lots, or casinos.
Experience ought to prepare people to know better. But Alexander
Pope had it nailed in 1733 when he wrote, in An Essay on Man, "Hope
springs eternal in the human breast" and also lamented, "His
soul proud Science never taught
to sway."
Video poker variations with wild cards and machines
offering "more ways to win" or secondary bonus rounds
nurture such hope. And while table snobs may scoff at slot low-brows
who don't believe bosses give with one paw and grab with the other,
the green felt is no less apt to engender similar spurious optimism.
You may spot
a new version of blackjack fitting this paradigm at your friendly
neighborhood gambling den. At first glance, it looks like the answer
to the prayers of players who've wished they could swap their top
cards with the folks
beside them.
Say you start with a 10 and a yokemate begins with
a six; the dealer shows an eight-up. You top off with a five and
watch your comrade get a nine. So you're each weak with totals of
15. Your expectations are to lose $0.42 on the dollar apiece. If
you could exchange top cards without cheating, you'd both be strong.
Per dollar bet, your 19 would be worth a theoretical profit of $0.59
and your new best pal's 11 -- on a double -- $0.35.
"Blackjack Switch" lets you do just this.
Only you play two spots yourself on every round and make the substitution
on your own hands. But if, in "discovering" this game,
hope springs in your breast, you've neglected what science ought
to have taught.
That science lesson is to ascertain all the news,
not just the part you want to hear (and they to tell). Blackjack
Switch has several possible implementations. The form you're most
likely to encounter pays 1-to-1 instead of 1.5-to-1 on a blackjack,
gives ties on 17 through 19 to the house as opposed to pushing,
makes the dealer hit rather than stand on soft 17, disallows pair
splitting, and prohibits switching top cards when they're aces.
The 1-to-1 payout
on a blackjack, alone, adds about 2.25 percent to the house's edge
in the game. Inability to split pairs costs another 0.4 percent.
These considerations, combined with the soft 17 rule and the dealer
winning ties on 17 through 19, essentially balance the benefit provided
by the ability to interchange top cards. An individual who memorizes
the optimum switching strategy is therefore pretty much in the same
boat, vis-a-vis house advantage, as a solid citizen who plays the
traditional game in an otherwise identical manner.
Of
course, you realize that you've got to make two bets instead of
one. So you're risking $20 in what's nominally a $10 game.
What's
more, the "correct" decision whether to trade cards isn't
necessarily as simple as it might appear. Good players know that
intuition doesn't always anticipate what the laws of probability
prove is the optimum strategy. For instance, who'd "guess"
that hitting beats standing on 12 against two-up, and
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