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Day after day, I sit
at the blackjack tables and watch players throw money away by making
irrational mistakes. Many of these people appear to be quite experienced
at the game and are playing for serious money. When they come out
of the blue with some of these beauties I have to wonder to myself,
"What were they thinking?"
Please understand
that I'm not trying to be critical and demeaning here. I just want
to point out for your benefit the flaws in so many players' logic
-- perhaps yours. Here are some real-life examples that I observe
over and over. See if you can figure out why these players did what
they did. And, by the way, have you ever done these things?
The fellow next
to me had 9 against the dealer's 4 up for $25. He paused and thought
about doubling down, but seemed afraid to put out the extra money
on such an insecure gamble. Finally, he just motioned for a hit
and caught a coveted 10. Winning with 19, he now put up $50 on the
next hand.
"How curious?"
I thought. He didn't want to risk the extra $25 when he was a 3-to-2
favorite (with 9 against a 4), but he's willing to put up that extra
quarter now on a totally blind hand. The next time you have what
seems like a risky but proper double, think about that -- because
you'll win the extra bet on the double more often than you'll win
the next random hand. That's part of why it's a correct double down.
Here's another
curiosity that I see with surprising consistency. Most players will
simply take a hit when they have 8 against a 5 or a 6, such as with
5/3 or 6/2 -- and that's the right basic play. But when they have
8 in the form of 4/4, they somehow seem to have this penchant for
doubling down. Would somebody please explain to me how 4/4 can possibly
be a better double than 5/3 or 6/2? The fact is, when you have 4/4
against a 5 or 6, the right play is to split (as long as the rules
allow you to double on split pairs). That's because you will now
have eight shots at an advantageous double down (by catching a 5,
6, 7 or Ace on either 4).
Next comes what
should be a classic example of what never to do. The player on my
left had $100 bet and was dealt 11 against the dealer's 8 up. Being
too conservative to double down all the way like he was supposed
to, he slid a measly ten extra bucks out next to his hundred and
doubled for less. Have you ever done anything like this?
Well, I shouldn't
have to tell you that he caught an Ace and couldn't take a second
hit with 12 against an 8. "Whew," he sighed in relief.
"I'm glad I didn't double for the whole hundred." Would
you have been relieved too, or do you see what he's actually done
to himself? Whenever you double down, you're making a tradeoff with
the house. In exchange for being able to increase your bet as an
odds-on favorite on the hand, you're giving up the right to take
multiple hits. That usually lowers your winning chances (in this
case, you drop from an 8-to-5 favorite down to 7-to-5). But doubling
is still the better play if you can get twice as much money out
there. However, if all you can win is an extra 10% of your bet,
then you're much better off being able to take extra hits when you
need them and forget the other 10%. With most hands, doubling for
less is a worse play than not doubling at all!
Here's one last
common, self-defeating maneuver. A man who was playing two hands
had a 12 and a 10 against the dealer's deuce. "I'd hit the
12," he said, "but I wanna save the 10 for my double."
So he incorrectly stood with 12 against a deuce believing that the
next card out of the shoe was more likely to be a 10 than the one
after it. Fact is, every card in the shoe has the exact same chance
to be a 10. If the shoe is full, then every next card has a 31%
chance to be a 10. If it's been vastly depleted of small cards such
that 40% of the cards are 10s, then every remaining card has a 40%
chance to be that 10. So this fella' misplayed his 12 for no good
reason. Don't you ever do that!
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