The thing that makes
poker infinitely deep and endlessly challenging is the psychological
aspect of the game. If your blackjack dealer could choose whether to
hit or stand on 16, for example, playing your own hand would be far
more complicated. Against a "tight" dealer who you don't think
will hit 16, you should probably hit your 12 when she has a 6 up. But
if she's the type that will draw to 16, then you'd want to stand with
12.
This is how poker
forces you to use your judgment. Poker strategy is not entirely mathematical
psychological reasoning plays a big part. And since reasoning
can and will be debated by qualified experts, there's not necessarily
just one good way to play a given poker hand.
I bring this up
because of a controversial poker article that appeared in a major newspaper
recently. It described a huge hand that developed in a $20/$40 limit
Texas Hold'em game, and I think the way the hand was played is highly
debatable.
In that hand, a
young poker pro was in the big blind for $20. The "under-the-gun"
player (first to act after the blinds) opted to "straddle"
(post a bet before the cards were dealt). After dealing the hole cards,
a raising war ensued until the bet was "capped" (the maximum
allowable raises) at $100 before it even got back around to the pro
in the big blind. The pro looked down and found a pair of Jacks in the
pocket.
Normally, pocket
Jacks are a pretty nice starting hand. But when four or five people
are re-raising and capping it, you can usually assume at least one player
has a higher pocket pair. This time the Jacks most likely need to flop
a "set" (trips)! That'll happen for you 1 time in 8.5 tries.
A common strategy
guideline for calling with a pocket pair when you need trips is to have
at least a four-way pot. That way, when you add together the money already
in the pot with your profit from future bets, you'll likely earn at
least 8 bets on your call if you hit your set. There is a problem, however,
with this oversimplification.
The problem is that
the four-way requirement is based upon your calling only one bet to
see the flop. But if seeing the flop costs four bets, then you'll need
to net 32 bets to make the call worthwhile. And remember, you can always
flop your set and still lose the pot.
Anyway, with five
players in so far, the pro reasoned that she was getting sufficient
odds to call another $80 to see the flop. Here's where I disagree! When
it was her turn to act, there had to be about $330 in the pot so far.
You have to figure that a couple of players, particularly the straddler
will fold, rather than pay all the extra raises to see a flop. Chances
are, you'll have a four-way pre-flop pot containing between $450 and
$500 -- $80 of it being the pro's calling money.
If she flops a set,
she can probably gain a double bet ($40) from each of two players there
and another $40 to $80 on the turn. Plus, she'll probably earn one last
$40 call from somebody at the river and net perhaps $550 to $600 on
the hand. Of course, if her set gets beat, she'll lose an easy $200.
What if her pocket
Jacks happen to be the best hand before the flop? I see almost no value
in that since you'll have to fold the best hand too many times. That'll
happen when an overcard flops, or when three straight or flush cards
get there followed by any serious action. Even if three undercards flop
and you bet, then get raised -- it's probably advisable to give up your
hand. I just don't think you should invest another $100 or so at that
point, hoping your Jacks can win when they were probably no good to
begin with.
So then, let's go
ahead and play this hand out on paper 85 times following the odds, and
say that we'll miss 75 flops, hit 10 sets of trips and get one of them
beat. Our 75 misses will cost us $80 x 75, or $6000. Our one losing
set of trips will cost another $200 for $6200 in total losses. Then
our nine winners could earn perhaps $600 x 9, or $5400. That doesn't
stack up like a net winner to me!
Of course, this
particular hand played out nothing at all like that. The pro flopped
Jacks full, a couple of players made smaller full houses and she won
a $1700 pot. But then, that's why it made the news. As for me, I'd muck
my pocket Jacks before the flop and stay out of trouble. How about you?