Pssst... Wanna know
a secret?
How about the secret
of the Gambler's Fallacy?
When you are playing
craps and a random shooter holds the dice, you might come across an
extraordinary occurrence. This random shooter may, for example, throw
four passes in a row. There are some bettors who may then assume that
the don't pass is now due, and will begin betting the dark side.
In probability theory
this process is called "Maturity of Chances," and can occur,
for example, if someone flips a coin 1,000 times. According to the law
of averages, it is assumed that approximately 500 tosses will be heads
and approximately 500 tosses will be tails.
If, however, after
900 tosses, it may be discovered that there are 600 heads and only 300
tails. Some people at that time might say that tails are now due, so
the remaining 100 tosses will be mostly tails.
If this were true, it would mean that the coin has some sort of innate
intelligence and will determine its future behavior by what has happened
in the past. Given a very, very long run of coins (or dice), it is probable
that the heads and tails (or the pass and don't pass) will sort itself
out. But this will be done by chance and circumstance, not by the determinate
behavior of the coins or the dice.
If there is no way
to deduce the outcome of a random roll of the dice, then why play craps
at all? The gambler's fallacy applies to randomness and is correct in
stating that previous rolls of the dice have no effect on future rolls.
However, there is a method in use today to help us predict the outcome
of a non-random roll of the dice on a consistent basis.
Wanna know the secret
that craps pros use to overcome the Gambler's Fallacy?
Let's find out!
There are two kinds
of Crapshooters - random rollers and rhythm rollers. Random rollers
are susceptible to the Gambler's Fallacy, but rhythm rollers are not.
When you are playing
craps and a rhythm roller holds the dice, you may also see four passes
in a row. But these are not completely random occurrences. A rhythm
roller sets the dice a certain way, grips them in a certain manner,
and tosses them precisely so they land and bounce together. Due to various
table conditions, this can't happen all the time, but even if the shooter
controls the dice for only 1-2% of his throws, it is enough to overcome
the house's slim edge on many bets - and produce a non-random occurrence.
By observing the
shooter's results, you may see a pattern develop, which you can use
to latch on to his long roll. And the next time he shoots, be prepared
to back him up with big bets. Don't be surprised if he rolls the same
numbers (for example, fours and tens) every time he shoots. This is
his own personal shooting "signature," and you should always
be on the lookout for one!
Rhythm rollers are
experts at what they do because of their knowledge, training and experience.
It is not easy to control the dice and not many people can do it. But
it is possible, so you might want to move from table to table to find
a good shooter. Once you find one, you should keep betting on him as
long as he bets on himself. There is no gambler's fallacy to deal with
because these are not random rolls, but trained rhythm rolls.
The next time you
play be on the lookout for rhythm rollers - the best way to increase
your profits!
Pssst... Now you
know the secrets of the Gambler's Fallacy!
The Crapshooter
© 2005 by Larry Edell
