My wife, the beautiful
AP, has told me that I am losing my much-vaunted patience with gamblers.
And, you know, I think she is right. I have become much less well disposed
to players who claim that by some trick of betting or some system of
placing bets that they can overcome the house edge at craps (or other
games). They can't.
Now, I know that
they can't and you know that they can't (hey, you better know that!)
but they don't know it. "I make this bet, hedge it with that bet,
parley, press and
." And lose. Yes, all gamblers have some
winning nights, some winning streaks even, but all gamblers are ultimately
losers (except for the few who hit Megabucks). If the math of the game
is against you, the longer you play, the better chance you have of being
a
loser.
But long-term losers
think nothing of touting their expertise over the games nevertheless.
Okay, so I have
lost my patience with gamblers who puff that they can beat the games
with betting systems or using high house edge bets. If you claim you
can beat a game then you had better be doing something that can get
you a real, verified edge, such as card counting and dice control.
But what really
fries my goose are the supposed gaming "experts" who also
recommend bad bets and bad systems; gaming "experts" who also
denigrate the math of the games or misconstrue just what luck is and
what luck isn't.
Here's an example
of luck: You have a come-out bet on the Pass Line and your friend has
a come-out bet on the Don't Pass. A seven is rolled. Is that good luck
or bad luck? Obviously, it's both. You had good luck because you won;
your friend had bad luck; he lost. In all casino games where you play
against a house edge, the long run means bad luck for the players and
good luck for the casinos.
Why is that? Because
the casinos either win more decisions than the players (on the Pass
Line, for example, the casinos win 251 decisions for every 244 they
lose - the players are the reverse of that, obviously) or the casinos
take a tax (called the "vig") from winning bets. If you place
the 6 or 8 for $6, you get paid $7, not $7.20, which is the true odds
payout. There is no way around these facts. No betting system; no praying
system; no nothing can change the nature of craps. However, if you change
the math of the game, you can win in the long run. That's a big "if"
naturally.
I have also lost
my patience with the Internet "gaming experts" who recommend
silly systems of play for their unwary followers.
Some of these hopeless,
hapless Internet "experts" pronounce themselves "advantage
players," or "dice controllers," when, in fact, the bets
they are advocating have such high initial house edges that no skillful
player can overcome them. The Internet "experts" whirl through
the various free chat rooms and message boards huffing and puffing and
blowing wind about their great skills and betting acumen, claiming to
be able to beat the game of craps making bets where the house edges
are anywhere from nine to 16.67 percent!
Can they do this?
Having seen some of them in actual casino action, the answer is a simple
"no."
This isn't something
that is hard to comprehend. Let's say that as a dice controller your
skill is able to give you a 10 percent edge in an even game against
the house. If you make the place bet of the 6 or 8, you will face an
initial house edge of 1.5 percent because the house does not pay this
bet at the true odds of 6-to-5 but rather at the house odds of 7-to-6.
With your 10 percent edge and the casino's 1.5 percent edge, your actual,
real-life edge is now 8.5 percent. Well let us say that you decide not
to bet the 6 or 8, but you want to place the 11 or 3 - where the house
edge is 11.11 percent.
Do you have an actual
edge over the house? No, you don't. You have not changed the nature
of the game enough to overcome such a dopey bet. You are playing now
against a house edge of 1.11 percent. What's the point of being an "advantage
player" when you don't have an advantage?
Let me give you
two simple examples of how Internet gaming "experts" deliberately
hoodwink or, if they are really stupid, unknowingly hoodwink the poor
souls who read their writing and listen to their ideas.
One Internet "expert"
states that he loves to make a crazy crapper bet if that number was
just rolled. So if the 2 or 12 has just been rolled, our "expert"
will bet the number. The house edge on such a bet is a humongous 13.8
percent. Remember what that means. The casino will win $13.80 for every
$100 the player bets on this proposition. There are no "ands,"
"ifs," or "buts" about it.
The Internet "expert"
would have you believe that these numbers come in bunches. They don't,
except on the rare times when they do - but unless you are psychic you
can't predict the rare times when they do. If you make these bets, the
longer you play, the more likely you'll be losing at or close to the
house edge.
Another Internet
"expert" says that the math of craps is irrelevant to the
game. Just go with your "feelings." Your "higher self"
knows what is about to happen and all you have to do is tune into this
higher self to win in the long run. Well, maybe the casinos are attuned
to their higher selves but I can tell you, I have yet to meet a player
who believes this nonsense and actually wins.
If you have the
ability to control the dice, then the mental aspects of the game become
very important. One needs to be calm and cool and relaxed when one shoots
the dice - one's higher self has to be grooved in! But that is a whole
different ball game.
But no player who
plays without an edge is going to beat the casinos in the long run.
The casinos take that fact to the bank - regularly! Be wise and keep
that in mind.
This article is
provided by the Frank Scoblete Network, John Robisonmanaging editor.
If you would like to use this article on your websiteplease contact
Casino City Press, the exclusive web syndication outlet forthe Frank
Scoblete Network.