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Craps
players betting the line and come can squeeze most of the oink out
of the banker's bacon by backing up their wagers with the maximum
allowable odds. This is because the casino earns a theoretical 1.4
cents per dollar on the starting bet and nothing on the odds. So,
with $10 adorning the line, the house pencils in $0.14 profit. That's
the hidden levy when you leave the bet as-is after the point is
established and stand to win or lose $10. It's also the effective
commission when you take $100 odds and stand to lose $110 or win
$130, $160, or $210 depending on the point.
But, house advantage
and the casino's theoretical earnings are one thing. Moolah you
actually win or lose at the table, and the chances of fulfilling
your fantasies or going belly-up, are something else. It's therefore
worth investigating, in practical terms, how much difference taking
odds really makes.
For an answer,
think about four options: a) $60 flat, no odds; b) $20 flat, $40
double odds; c) $15 flat, $45 triple odds; and d) $10 flat, $50
quintuple odds. The alternatives all represent $60 maximum outlays.
They're not exactly equivalent, though, because the flat money is
exposed during every come-out cycle while the odds are only at risk
on the two-thirds of the rolls in which points get established.
But, we're being pragmatic not pedantic, and most solid citizens
would say these situations were similar.
A reasonable
way to compare the options is to examine the shot each affords at
winning or losing $500 before completing 200 come-out cycles. On
the upside, the likelihood you'll clear $500 increases as the odds
proportion of the $60 rises relative to the flat bet. You're a 0.96-to-1
underdog at no odds but are favored by 1.05-to-1 at double, 1.09-to-1
at triple, and 1.14-to-1 at quintuple odds. Conversely, the chance
of losing $500 falls under the same conditions. You're fighting
1.64-to-1 with no odds, 1.27-to-1 with double, slightly over 1.25-to-1
with triple, and just under 1.25-to-1 with quintuple odds.
Another yardstick
would be the probability of doubling a $500 stake before going broke.
Again, prospects improve for a $60 maximum wager as money shifts
from flat bets to the odds. The chance improves from 0.79-to-1 with
no odds to 0.92-to-1 with double, 0.94-to-1 with triple, and 0.96-to-1
with quintuple odds. The differences are small by either standard.
Still, with the choices for distributing the $60, it would be foolish
not to make the apportionment with as much as possible allocated
to odds.
But, this isn't
always the decision. Sometimes, the trade-off is a simple flat bet
versus the same thing with odds -- that is, increasing exposure
to cut the edge. Consider two options: a) $10 flat with no odds
or b) $10 flat with $20 double odds. For these exposure levels,
compare chances of winning or losing $250.
Betting $10
flat with no odds, the prospect of winning $250 within 200 come-out
cycles is only 0.06-to-1. Adding $20 odds jumps the chance of reaching
this goal to 1.05-to-1. Conversely, the likelihood of losing $250
within 200 rounds betting $10 flat is 0.12-to-1, and at $10 flat
with
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