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Guess what's
the least popular bet at craps,
in terms of how many players toss how much on it? Here are two hints.
Together, they'll either be a give-away or make the question more
enigmatic. First, the wager in question vies with Pass and Don't
Pass for allowing the casino the least edge in the game. Second,
it occupies the most space on the felt of any bet.
It's the Come
bet. Come is a distant second to Place and Buy for money on the
layout after a shooter establishes a point. Yet, players who leave
their come bets flat -- take no odds -- give the casino an edge
equivalent to only $0.014 per dollar at risk. With odds taken, the
house's fraction of the action on is smaller still. Compare this
$0.014 or less to $0.015 placing the six or eight, $0.040 placing
the five or nine, $0.067 placing the four or 10, and from $0.026
to $0.050 buying the four or 10.
Come bets get
short shrift for a sheaf of reasons. Some can be justified psychologically
-- players should be comfortable with their wagers. But none hold
up under statistical scrutiny.
In a few instances,
players simply don't understand Come bets. Shame on them for joining
a dangerous game without mastering it!
Another objection
to Come bets is that money moved to a number this way is automatically
taken down after a win. In contrast, Place and Buy bets stay put
if the shooter repeats. This argument is meaningless in that a new
come bet can be made after a payout. And, who's to say what the
next roll will bring?
Occasionally,
solid citizens dislike inability to specify the number to which
the Come bet will move. Great for the oracles who can reliably predict
the future. For those of us not gifted with omniscience, the issue
is moot.
Sometimes, the
complaint about Come bets is that they're the only propositions
in the casino that can't be recalled or pressed at will. These are,
indeed, restrictions. But they only apply to the flat portions of
the wagers. Odds on Come bets can be raised within the limits or
removed at any time. And, anyway, everyone remembers when they "knew"
something was going to happen and were right, but forgets when they
had the same feeling and were wrong.
The most common,
and simultaneously silliest, argument against Come as opposed to
Place or Buy bets runs to the effect that "a Come bet has to hit
twice before you win anything, but you make money on a Place or
Buy the first time it rolls." To appreciate why this contention
is fatuous, consider the chances that Come and the various Place
or Buy bets will actually win and lose.
Come bets win
on the initial rolls if a seven or 11 pops (22.22 percent probability);
they lose at this stage on a two, three, or 12 (11.11 percent probability).
The chance of a Come bet moving to the six or eight, then winning,
is 12.63 percent; going to the six or eight, then losing, has a
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