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THOROUGHBRED
HANDICAPPERS are highly opinionated people who are often
prone to disagreement when it comes to what method or technique
works best in predicting winners. It's been that way for more than
a century and will probably continue as long as pari-mutuel wagering
on anything continues.
One thing most agree on, however, is that there are no shortcuts
to picking winners. Those who survive the long "wars"
of continuous handicapping are few-a select, dedicated group who
have found an edge and continue to hone their weapons of survival,
with hard work and innovation of course.
 The
arrival of Cary Fotias' BLINKERS OFF (194 pages, paperbound,
5x8 format, $29.95), should allow serious, advanced-ability handicappers
who thirst for new ways to isolate true contenders and eliminating
non-contending horses to rejoice.
Backed by two respected names in thoroughbred handicapping, Dr.
William Ziemba (Beat the Racetrack) and successful big-time handicapper
Richie Schwartz (no relation to this reviewer), both of whom had
input into the book's content, Fotias rightfully joins innovators
like Huey Mahl, Tom Brohamer, William Scott, Tom Ainslie, Ray Taulbot,
Howard Sartin and James Quinn among others as an author and theorist
to be reckoned with and watched for the future.
Ziemba, who wrote the foreword for the book, clearly views racetrack
betting as a "financial market," requiring the ability
to establish the probability of a horse winning as key to successful
handicapping. He sees Fotias' Xtras (key handicapping factors covered
in detail) offering comprehensive information, allowing the handicapper
to clearly preview the possible outcome of any given race.
Ziemba thinks of this work as "an entertaining, well-written
book" and predicts it to have a major impact on the way races
are analyzed and wagered on from now on. This reviewer agrees.
How DOES one learn how to identify a well-condition horse? That's
the key. Fotias is the teacher; the subject is form cycle analysis.
That factor AND money management are the one-two punch separating
winners from losers in the long run.
Fotias sees the book as a vital launching pad of sorts for his Equiform
company, based in New York. His technique involves producing premium
final time numbers and velocity based pace numbers, which he considers
a superior way of analyzing a horse's form and condition cycle.
In the past, Fortias admits fascination with the still-respected
Ragozin "sheets" but says he has "stepped beyond
them," because they failed to capture the true "dynamics
of the race."
For those who believe pace, deceleration, velocity, feet per second
and ground loss are vital factors in handicapping a race, there's
a gold mine of information awaiting you. Fotias believes it is crucial
to examine each horse's last three years of performances when the
opportunity exists. He adjusts his numbers for factors like wind,
weight, track configuration and track variants, what most intelligent,
dedicated players have sought for years.
The book explores
the dozen important variables handicappers should consider for every
starter in a race since each has " a certain amount of energy
available to distribute" in the event. Those factors are: a
horse's particular running style;
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the pace demand
of the race; distance; surface; bias; the jockey; trainer; weight;
post position; final time ability; racing luck and the horse's current
condition.
Fotias clearly
considers condition most important. "If a horse is not physically
in shape to run a competitive race, all the sophisticated angles
in the world isn't going to lead him into the winner's circle."
Later Fotias underscores the need to recognize and analyze situations
like lightly-raced horses; animals going from dirt to turf and vice
versa and track bias.
The author does an excellent job of taking each factor or piece
of the handicapping puzzle, while assisting the player to view the
entire picture by the final chapter. For those who wish to know
more or avail themselves to his services-he tells you where to call
for further information.
This book is available from Gambler's Book Club (Gambler's Book
Shop), 630 South 11th St., Las Vegas, NV 89101. Call, using a MasterCard,
VISA or Discover (no American Express) 1-800-522-1777 from Monday
through Saturday, from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Pacific time. You may order
from the store's web site at www.gamblersbook.com
also and view the store's 80-page catalog, which has books, software
and videotapes in 30 different areas. Or just call and ask for the
catalog to be sent-it is free. The store is located two miles from
Downtown Las Vegas, a block west of Maryland Parkway, just off Charleston
Boulevard. From The Strip, one may drive toward Downtown, make a
right on Charleston Boulevard, and when you get to South 11th Street,
turn left. You'll see a large blue sign with red dice, directly
above the store.
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