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Craps
players betting the line and come can squeeze most of the oink out
of the banker's bacon by backing up their wagers with the maximum
allowable odds. This is because the casino earns a theoretical 1.4
cents per dollar on the starting bet and nothing on the odds. So,
with $10 adorning the line, the house pencils in $0.14 profit. That's
the hidden levy when you leave the bet as-is after the point is
established and stand to win or lose $10. It's also the effective
commission when you take $100 odds and stand to lose $110 or win
$130, $160, or $210 depending on the point.
But, house advantage and the casino's theoretical earnings are one
thing. Moolah you actually win or lose at the table, and the chances
of fulfilling your fantasies or going belly?up, are something else.
It's therefore worth investigating, in practical terms, how much
difference taking odds really makes.
For an answer, think about four options: a) $60 flat, no odds; b)
$20 flat, $40 double odds; c) $15 flat, $45 triple odds; and d)
$10 flat, $50 quintuple odds.
The alternatives all represent $60 maximum outlays. They're not
exactly equivalent, though, because the flat money is exposed during
every come-out cycle while the odds are only at risk on the two?thirds
of the rolls in which points get established. But, we're being pragmatic
not pedantic, and most solid citizens would say these situations
were similar.
A reasonable way to compare the options is to examine the shot each
affords at winning or losing $500 before completing 200 come-out
cycles. On the upside, the likelihood you'll clear $500 increases
as the odds proportion of the $60 rises relative to the flat bet.
You're a 0.96-to-1 underdog at no odds but are favored by 1.05-to-1
at double, 1.09-to-1 at triple, and 1.14-to-1 at quintuple odds.
Conversely, the chance of losing $500 falls under the same conditions.
You're fighting 1.64-to-1 with no odds, 1.27?to?1 with double, slightly
over 1.25-to-1 with triple, and just under 1.25-to-1 with quintuple
odds.
Another yardstick would be the probability of doubling a $500 stake
before going broke. Again, prospects improve for a $60 maximum wager
as money shifts from flat bets to the odds. The chance improves
from 0.79-to-1 with no odds to 0.92-to-1 with double, 0.94?to?1
with triple, and 0.96-to-1 with quintuple odds.
The differences are small by either standard. Still, with the choices
for distributing the $60, it would be foolish not to make the apportionment
with as much as possible allocated to odds.
But, this isn't always the decision. Sometimes, the trade-off is
a simple flat bet versus the same thing with odds ?? that is, increasing
exposure to cut the edge. Consider two options: a) $10 flat with
no odds or b) $10 flat with $20 double odds. For these exposure
levels, compare chances of winning or losing $250.
Betting $10 flat with no odds, the prospect of winning $250 within
200 come-out cycles is only 0.06-to-1. Adding $20 odds jumps the
chance of reaching this goal to 1.05-to-1. Conversely, the likelihood
of losing $250 within 200 rounds betting $10 flat is 0.12-to-1,
and at $10 flat with $20 odds rockets to 1.27-to-1.
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