risk, a proficient
Basic Strategy player betting $10 has 84 percent chance of being
in action after 800 rounds. The same person with a $250 session
stake has 69 percent chance of surviving 400 rounds at $10 each.
Starting with $100, this bettor has 49 percent chance of outlasting
160 $10 rounds.
A second means
of weighing the alternate approaches is to determine the chance
of doubling the buy-in, betting $10 per round, independently of
how long it takes to either achieve this win goal or deplete the
stake. Here, figures can be determined by profit-based "risk of
ruin" analysis. Considering the entire weekend as a single session,
the player has about 35 percent chance to win $500 rather than
lose the same amount. Splitting the visit into two parts, the
bettor has 42 percent chance to win $250 as opposed to lose this
much in each segment. And dividing the trip into five portions,
the individual has 47 percent chance of earning $100 before losing
a like amount in each session.
The first
set of probabilities suggests the extent to which dividing a bankroll
into session stakes reduces the prospects of surviving individual
proportionately shorter games. The second set indicates how playing
multiple lower-stake sessions improves chances of reaching correspondingly
less lofty earnings goals.
Which is best
for you? If you'll really rue a premature wipe-out, divide your
money into session stakes but accept the low returns each sitting
is apt to yield. If you won't be satisfied with a modest payday,
play with a consolidated bankroll but accept the diminished likelihood
of success.
Much of gambling
skill involves understanding the constraints imposed by the laws
of chance. But, understanding doesn't burst the constraints to
get those laws to work both ways. You can get them on your side
if you know the way you want to go. Or, you can always get lucky.
As the bettors' bard, Sumner A Ingmark, said:
Making
progress incrementally,
May get you far, coincidentally.
More
Gaming Strategy articles by Alan Krigman